Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Fabulous 2012 Autograph add for my Panini Black Rookie Set

The purchase of this card illustrates my buying habits to a "T". Many people buy when players are hot. This is a great strategy IF and only if that player gets hotter. There are very few times when this is true. Players like Adrian Peterson were always hot from the beginning and in his instance, prices only went up. Even for AP though, there have been roller coaster moments. His ACL injury cooled his values off slightly although I never bought any during that time. That was really the time to buy because people weren't sure how he's respond. Many running backs are not the same when they have that type of injury. AP responded with a phenomenal 2,000 + yard season.

David Wilson retired a couple of weeks ago and the market is now flooded with these cards, many at dirt cheap prices. Some sellers are selling high in hopes of duping collectors that had not heard the news which is both amusing and a common occurrence in this type of situation. I'm doing 2 sets from 2012 and oddly enough Wilson was not included in the 2012 Spx set. He was part of the 2012 Panini Black Rookie Auto Patch set so I went ahead and got this one. A month ago this was a 20-25 dollar card. Now it's a 5 dollar card. I'd say the only reason the value is that high is just the cost of the packs which if you recall on the 2012 Panini black were somewhere around 200 dollars. You would get one of these patch autographs with some strange numbering (versions to 349, 99, 49 and 25) but the base set was always numbered to 349. The other versions are difficult to pick out because the only difference is the numbering on the back and a slightly different sheen to the word "Rookie" the player name and "Black". This is why if the seller doesn't list the number in their auction I won't buy it for fear of getting a non-base version and then having to keep the card or sell it back. 

This is a case where they should have just made the numbering higher on these. There's nothing wrong with having a rookie card numbered to 999 or even 1999 like for the 1999 spx cards. If the card is good it won't lose its value and if everyone else is like me we're kind of tired of the endless parallels to every card. Fake scarcity doesn't make a card more valuable. It's to the point where a card numbered to even 25 copies doesn't generate much interest. In the late 1990's whenever you pulled a card numbered that low you'd about fall out of your chair no matter who it was. It's just not that way any more.

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